The Global Issue of Aging Populations

Olympia World Affairs Council

Global Update July 2025

Gary Walker, OWAC Board Member

Aging around the globe is gaining in importance and countries impacted by an aging population are struggling with how to address the issue. Likewise, countries with large young or working age populations, in general, may not have an economy or social structures to support an aging population. So, a natural outcome may be a shift of populations from countries with too many people to countries with not enough. But, is it that simple? This paper will attempt to take a deeper look at this issue.

First let’s review birth rates. Are the birth rates universal around the world or do the different regions of the world vary? The table below shows some of regions have a much higher birth rate than other regions. Per the United Nations (UN), the approximate birth rate replacement percentage is 2.3%. What this means is that in order for a country or region to sustain its population, every female must have more than two children to maintain its current population. By doing this, the country or region can have a stable population and maintain its working population. When the percentage starts to fall below that percentage, then the population overall shrinks and the working population is reduced.

Region	Birth Rate Percentage
Sub Saharan Africa	4.3
Arab World	3.1
South Asia	2.2
Europe and Central Asia	1.6
North America	1.6
East Asia and Pacific	1.4
Central Europe and Baltics	1.4
Latin America and Caribbean	1.8
Per UN, the average global replacement rate is 2.3%

Second, what does this variation of the birth rate in various regions mean? In the tables below are examples from around the world showing the differences between the birth rates in the in the Global North and South.  In the North, which tends to have more economically and industrially developed countries, their populations are getting older and are starting to reflect a shrinking working age population. The work demand will remain the same or could increase, but there will be fewer citizens to do the work. In contrast to the Global South, with less economically and industrially developed countries, there are fewer older people in those countries. The South has more children and the working age population is available for employment.  However, these countries may not have the work opportunities available to them. The one prominent demographic that stands out is the difference in life expectancies between the Global North and South. This difference could be due to differences in health care, education, other forms of social support, violence, and political persecution.

Percentage of Population
Global North	Percentage   0-14 yrs. old	Percentage 15-64 yrs. old	Percentage Over 65 yrs. old	Life Expectancy
Australia	8	65	17	84
Canada	16	64	21	83
Denmark	16	63	21	82
France	18	60	21	83
Germany	14	63	23	81
Hungary	14	64	22	77
Italy	12	65	23	84
Japan	12	59	30	85
New Zealand	19	64	17	82
Poland	13	65	22	79
South Korea	11	69	20	84
UK	17	63	20	81
US	18	64	19	79
World Factbook and UN 2023

Percentage of Population
Global South	Percentage   0-14 yrs. old	Percentage 15-64 yrs. old	Percentage Over 65 yrs. old	Life Expectancy
Afghanistan	40	57	3	66
Brazil	19	70	11	76
Columbia	23	67	10	78
Haiti	30	66	4	65
India	24	69	7	72
Indonesia	25	68	7	71
Mexico	24	69	8	75
Nigeria	41	56	3	54
Philippines	30	64	6	70
South Africa	28	66	6	66
South Sudan	42	56	3	58
Sudan	41	56	3	66
Syria	33	63	4	72
World Factbook and UN 2023

So, what does this mean? The Global North has higher quality health care, education, employment, and retirement. This permits its citizens to live longer and also to experience a better quality of life. However, as these individuals age and enter the later stages of their lives, their need for help and support services increases. If the population of that country is aging and there are fewer people of working age population, who will be available to provide those services? The demand for these services will be in addition to the normal or standard economic and industrial employment demands that a country faces such as retail, construction, agriculture, etc. With a shrinking working age population, there will be labor shortages which will have economic impacts throughout the Global North.  Plus, there will tax revenue will fall from few employees, but governmental support for an aging population will continue and would probably increase.

Finally, the Global North will have to answer this question: where will it find more labor? The simple answer may be to increase the birth rate, recruit new labor to meet the market demands, find other alternate solutions such as automation and AI, or a combination of the above.

For countries in the Global North, there are several significant factors at play in this issue. Here are some examples.

·      The cost of living is growing. It is getting more expensive to purchase a home and rents are climbing. Cost and availability of childcare are increasing. For example, the average annual cost of infant care in the US is now approximately $14,000 per year on average.

·      Populations are becoming more urbanized which means that smaller families are preferred. In rural areas where agriculture is more prominent, larger families mean more hands to help out. Conversely, in urban areas larger families mean there are more mouths to feed and a larger residence is needed to house everyone.

·      Women have more access to education and employment.

·      The societal values of larger families and women as the sole responsible marriage partner for rearing the children is diminishing.

·      Teen pregnancies are diminishing due to contraceptive usage and being better informed.

So, if the employment demands cannot be met internally within a country, then potential employees would need to be brought into the country. In other words, there is a growing demand for immigrants to fulfill these employment demands. If one looks objectively at the immigrants, legal or illegal, coming into these countries in the Global North, they are coming to work and have a better life. Other primary reasons for immigration to the Global North are violence, political prosecution, and the effects of climate change in their home countries. Basically, they are coming to find financial support for their families or there are conditions in their countries of origin that are driving them into exile.

Some countries in the Global North are experimenting with or have already started to integrate robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence into their businesses or industries as a substitute for employing people. Without the human resources available to fill these needs from within their own country, businesses and industries are looking for other alternatives other than bringing in immigrants to perform the work. They are starting to look at and identify potential tasks or functions that could be performed by robots, machines, or AI supported software. The initial costs could be expensive to install them but then the maintenance costs could be less and potentially more reliable than dealing with humans whether they are from within their own countries or are immigrants.

The question of integration remains. If robotics and AI cannot take the place of all jobs, then the Global North will still need to integrate immigrants into their new countries. Do the new immigrants abandon or erase their prior cultures and languages and fully embrace the cultures and languages of their new countries?  This was the assumption in the United States with the great migrations in the 1830s when the Irish were escaping the Potato Famine and again in the 1860-80s with Eastern and Southern Europeans migration. But over the last century, immigrant communities to the Global North have retained and celebrated their cultural roots and many receiving countries have accepted and embraced new immigrant communities.

A reasonable outcome is that today’s immigrants would retain much of their home country’s culture and language and blend those with the culture and language of their new countries. This could encourage changes in the new countries, such as cultural influences, additional languages being spoken, and the shifting of the ethnic demographics in the gaining country. How well will these changes be received?  (An interesting book about the immigration impacts in Netherlands can be found in Amsterdam:  A History of the World’s Most Liberal City by Russel Shorto.)

So far, the reactions to this inflow of immigrants into the Global North has been mixed and not consistent. Some countries have acknowledged impacts of their aging population. Other countries have taken a more nationalistic stance and want to reduce or eliminate its immigrant population. Here are some examples.

·      Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated that the European Union needs to embrace immigration to address its aging population or the region faces extinction.

·      Japan has recognized that it needs foreign workers to meet its employment demands. In 2024 its parliament enacted updated laws that made it easier for foreign workers to stay longer and gave inexperienced workers three years to develop their professional skills. Plus, the country is increasing its investment in robotics and automation.

·      Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has claimed that immigration will disintegrate the European Union and has referred to immigrants has poison and not needed. He has stated that he will never let them in.

·      The US Government stance has followed Orban’s position and its actions are reflected daily in the news.

·      The South Korean government has recognized its aging population crisis and has started to relax its strict controls on immigration, how it tackles illegal immigrants, and has increased its efforts to attract foreign workers.

Clearly, immigration is one of the top geopolitical and domestic topics of our day.  The Global North is struggling to reconcile the need for more labor and the resistance to new and unfamiliar cultures, languages and customs of immigrants. It is not reasonable to expect that immigrants would abandon their cultures and languages just because they move to another country. Granted, they must integrate themselves into the various aspects of their new country, but they will want to cherish and remember their home countries.

If one takes a step back and tries to view this issue from a longer perspective, it is evident that the countries of the Global North will eventually change their approach to immigration if they want to address their aging population and economic needs.  The Global North will be compelled to choose from a variety of strategies: (1) increase their birth rates which is not likely; (2) allow more immigrants in to fill these demands; (3) increase the use and diversity of applications of robotics, automation, and AI; or (4) apply a combination of (2) and (3). Americans may need to rethink their immigration policy if they want to address the aging population of our country.