Can Haiti Recover From Being a Failed State?

Olympia World Affairs Council

Global Update April 2025

Gary Walker, OWAC Board Member

Haiti has suffered violence, poverty, and political instability since its inception. In examining the current situation, the question arises whether the country can recover from its current situation and become a fully functioning government that provides a safe, peaceful, and healthy environment for its citizens. But, to look at the current situation in Haiti, one should try to understand its history

The Europeans first encountered the island when Columbus landed there in 1492 and named it Hispaniola or Little Spain. Spain established the first European colony there in 1497. Two hundred years later in 1697, Spain ceded half of the island to France which France renamed Haiti. In 1801, Haitian slaves rebelled and after three years of fighting Haiti gained its independence in 1804. Violence, segregation, and division persisted in Haiti all the way to 1915 when the U.S. invaded the country to end the violence. The U.S. withdrew its troops in 1934 but maintained fiscal control until 1947.

In 1956, “Papa Doc” Duvalier seized control of the country in a coup and was elected President in 1957. However, in 1964, he declared himself President for Life and turned the country into a dictatorship with the help of the Tontons Macoutes militia. In 1971, he died and was replaced by his 19-year-old son, “Baby Doc” Duvalier. In 1986, he fled the country due to increasing unrest and rebellion to his rule.

Following Baby Doc’s ouster, the country was racked by violence and coups until the U.S. sent troops back into the country in 1994. The UN started sending in peacekeeping forces in 1995 to supplement and eventually replace the U.S. troops. Regardless of the presence of these military troops, the political turmoil continues to persist until the present day. Presidents are elected, forcibly removed, or fail to relinquish their power. The result of this political turmoil boils over into almost every part of the everyday life of Haiti’s population. The economy is weakened, education and healthcare are reduced to almost nothing, and a large number of its citizens flee the country.

Haiti has struggled with its economy from its inception. During its colonial era under the Spanish and then the French, the economy was focused primarily on sugar with coffee and cacao also contributing to its revenue. After its violent struggle for independence, France finally recognized Haiti’s independence in 1804 but with the stipulation that it pay reparations that are estimated to be worth about $21 billion in today’s dollars. This debt took 122 years to repay. As a result, Haiti did not have the capital funds needed to develop its economy and infrastructure or meet the humanitarian needs of its population. Today, Haiti exports apparel, manufactures, essential oils (Vetiver), cocoa, mangoes, coffee, and bitter oranges, mainly to the U.S. However, its exports total about $960 million while its imports are about $3.62 billion. Today, the commercial sector is declining due to the increasing levels of armed gang violence. As a result, most of its citizens focus on small scale, sustainable agriculture in their efforts to just survive.

The bottom line is that there is a current environment of little to no political or organizational infrastructure, a faltering or failing economy, and, as a result, citizens are left to fend for themselves. Hope and dreams vanish as citizens struggle to just stay alive and feed their families. On a broader scale, these actions have turned the country into a political and institutional vacuum. As in physical science, politics hates a vacuum. This has provided an opportunity for the various armed gangs to step in and compete with the ruling council to take power and control. Haiti is currently being labeled as a fragile, failing, or a failed state depending on the perspective of the commentator.

 On top of this turmoil, Haiti has experienced several serious natural disasters to include a series of tropical storms between 2004-2008, a 7.0 earthquake in 2010, a very powerful Hurricane Matthew in 2016, and another 7.2 earthquake in 2021. Together, these events have multiplied the misery and devastation faced by its population.

In 2021 Present Moise was assassinated by unknown gunmen in his home. His successor, Prime Minister and President Ariel Henry resigned in 2024 due to the increasing levels of gang violence. He was replaced by an interim prime minister, Michel Patrick Boisvert, and a transitional ruling council. The mandate for the interim prime minister and transitional ruling council is due to expire on 7 February 2026.

The inability of the interim, transitional government to properly function and help the country to recover and prosper can in large part be blamed on the approximately 200 armed gangs operating in the country. In the capital Port-au-Prince, there are two large, dominant gang coalitions operating there. They are rivals but reached a pact in 2024 for the purpose of ousting the government leadership and to respond to UN peacekeeping operations. Historically, there have been armed gangs operating in Haiti since the days of Papa Doc Duvalier but they were under the nominal control of Haitian politicians, businessmen, and other elites in the country.

As an interesting side note, Haiti shares the island with the Dominican Republic, a prosperous country with a large tourist trade. The Dominicans are struggling to keep out the Haitians who are trying to flee across the border. During the years of the Duvalier family’s rule in Haiti, the Dominican Republic was also ruled by dictators. The autocrats pursued different approaches in their corruption efforts. The Duvaliers just tried to steal anything and everything in the country without any thought of future gains. While the Dominican dictators saw their corruption as a long-term endeavor and worked to promote the economic growth of their country. Their logic was if the country was doing well, then there would be more to steal in the future. The Dominican dictatorship ended in the 1980s and the country migrated toward democracy and a free market economy.  

But the armed gangs operating today are more advanced and able to operate independently than they were in the past. Part of this is due to their economic endeavors which have given them much more financial independence. Their financial activities have included extortion, drug trafficking, and small arms smuggling. The other aspect is their political development. Not only do they have deep financial pockets but a number of these armed gang members are former military and police. Accordingly, they have started to develop and refine their political ambitions and push their agendas.

What are the people of Haiti experiencing because of all this? The combination of the natural disasters and this political violence has resulted in the following:

·      Haiti is most impoverished country in the western hemisphere and one of the most impoverished in the world.

·      Half of the country's population (5.4 million) is suffering from acute hunger with 2 million facing emergency levels of hunger.

·      About 1 million are displaced.

·      The country’s healthcare system is collapsing with hospitals closing, suffering from a lack of medicine, and shortage of staff.

·      The number of women and girls becoming victims of gang-related violence are increasing rapidly.

·      There have been over 80,000 cases of cholera since October 2022.

·      At least 5,600 people were killed, 2,200 injured and 1490 kidnapped in 2024. This death toll was at least 1,000 higher than it was in 2023.

What is the being done to address this crisis in Haiti? The U.N. authorized a security mission to help the country address the gang violence. In 2024, Kenya sent about 400 elite police and other countries contributed about another 100 personnel. The current staffing levels as of April 2025 reflects a total force of 1,077 with 797 coming from Kenya. However, the security mission still remains understaffed and underfunded. There have been more frequent clashes with the armed gangs and the security mission has started to suffer casualties, both killed and wounded.

Total U.S. support for Haiti has dropped from over $466 million in 2024 to approximately $67 million in 2025. With the closure of USAID, U.S. support will continue to decline or become negligible.

Given the current state of violence, the ability to change the situation in Haiti appears to be very dim. With almost 1,100 peacekeeping forces in the country, the armed violence has not stopped and could possibly grow worse as the gangs ramp up to not only keep control of their territory but to oppose any foreign interference. Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have worked for decades to supply the humanitarian assistance needed in the country but due to the gang violence they are either closing their operations or, if they remain, are being overwhelmed by the level of need or they are able to operate under very restricted conditions.

Where does Haiti go from here? There are three potential outcomes:

·      Haiti will continue to exist in its current state without much prospect of change.

·      The armed gangs will continue to grow politically, ruling the country, and turning it into an autocracy.

·      Ideally, the armed gangs are removed and Haiti becomes a democratic country with stable economic and social infrastructures.

The prospects are not very positive. Haiti, with the assistance of the international community, has to stop the gang violence, complete the recovery efforts of the past natural disasters, and address the humanitarian needs of its citizens. These humanitarian needs include addressing the growing pandemic of hunger and starvation and the lack of healthcare, housing, and education. Over the long term, the country needs to rebuild its political infrastructure to be more democratic and inclusive. Additionally, the healthcare and education systems will need to be rebuilt. In other words, in the near term, Haiti with the help of the international community could stop the suffering and help its citizens to heal and recover. Corresponding, over the long term, a political, social, and economic system must be developed that will give its citizens hope and provide them with an opportunity to prosper and live full and complete lives.

In conclusion, the ability to achieve both the short and long goals for Haiti do not seem to hold a lot of promise. With the decades of corruption and violence in the country, the ability to change and move away from this violence and corruption does not seem to be realistic or achievable. Haiti will continue to float between a failing or failed state into the foreseeable future unless the international community, including the U.S., makes addressing the Haitian crisis its number one priority or a miracle occurs. The possibility of either of these options occurring is either slim or none.

Information obtained through a variety of sources including BBC, The Economist, New York Times, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, NPR, The Arms Control Association, UN, NBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, and others.