Syria and the Middle East

Olympia World Affairs Council

January 2025 Global Situation Update

Gary Walker, OWAC Board Member

On 8 December 2024, Bashar al-Assad gave up his position as the President of Syria and fled into exile to Russia. On that same day, rebels took control of Damascus and his regime collapsed. The political situation in Syria escalated with the rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), taking the offensive on 27 November 2024. HTS initially seized Aleppo and continued their advance on Damascus. Syrian governmental forces with Russian military support tried to stop their advance but failed with a large number of civilian and military casualties and widespread displacement. The al-Assad regime collapsed almost overnight with governmental and military personnel shedding their uniforms and going into hiding or fleeting. The collapse of the al-Assad regime resulted in massive celebrations by Syrian citizens and the exposure of the enormous volume of human rights abuses of his regime.

How did this happen? Fighting by al-Assad’s forces against various Syrian groups has been on-going for years. Bashar al-Assad’s forces had been able to stop them with active support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. However, Russia has not been able to continue its level of support now that it had provided since September 2015. This has been primarily due to the drain of its manpower and resources owing to its protracted invasion of Ukraine. In addition, the ability of Iran and Hezbollah to support al-Assad was decimated by Israel’s actions against them. Israel exposed Iranian military weaknesses and decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership.

Are there any conclusions to be drawn so far and next steps?

·      The influence of Iran and Hezbollah has been weakened and they could have less political influence in the Middle East in the short term until they are able to recover from the Israeli military actions.

·      On the opposite side, Turkey’s influence in the Middle East, particularly in Syria will grow. Turkey was a subtle supporter of the Syrian rebels except for the Kurdish rebels. They will be well placed to advise and influence the new Syrian rulers.

·      The overthrow of the al-Assad regime also highlighted the limitations of Putin’s military strength and influence. Due to their invasion of Ukraine, Russia has not been able to provide the same level of military support now that it had in the past. This will be noted not only in the Middle East but on the African continent as well. In addition, the Russian Wagner group has seen its influence reduced since the death of its leader in 2023.

·      On a broader note, Russia’s failure in Syria, its dependence on North Korean troops in Ukraine, and its reliance on military supplies from Iran, North Korea, and China among others may be a sign of Russia’s growing inability to continue or sustain the same level of aggression.

What could happen next?

·      HTS is the primary political/military organization that led the assault against al-Assad and his regime. Consequently, they have taken the lead in the running of the country, both on a day-to-day basis and in developing the political infrastructure for the future.

·      HTS has been declared a terrorist organization by the UN and a number of countries, including the U.S. However, some countries are considering removing that label and the U.S. has lifted the reward for the capture of its leader.

·      Although it remains an Islamist group in Syria, the world waits to see how it will impose its will and how it will rule. Whether it institutes a more democratic or inclusive government that grants full rights to all citizens regardless of religious affiliation, gender, etc. or whether it will follow the strict Islamist code that Iran has imposed on its citizens.

·      So far, there has not been massive violent retaliations or restrictions against Syrian citizens. However, HTS and its allies are searching for al-Assad senior officials who were responsible for the massive and extreme human rights violations carried out on the Syrian population.

Prepared by Gary Walker

OWAC  Board Member

Information obtained through a variety of sources including BBC, The Economist, New York Times, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, NPR, The Arms Control Association, and others.